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SR-71 Freeway Conversion Project Phase 1 / South Segment

Construction Phase Risk Analysis

Metro SR 71 South Project Map

Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (LACMTA) 


Los Angeles, CA


Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis

Construction Phase Risk Assessment

SR-71 South Segment Project Area

SHA Analytics, LLC is providing construction phase risk assessment and risk analysis support services to LA Metro on the South Segment of the SR-71 Improvements Project between Mission Blvd and Los Angeles/San Bernardino County. The Project consists of construction on SR-71 in Los Angeles County and the City of Pomona to convert the existing 4-lane expressway to a full 8-lane standard freeway. This includes widening SR-71 to add one mixed-flow lane and one HOV lane in each direction as well as constructing concrete retaining walls and box culverts. The construction contract was awarded in February 2021, and construction began in May 2021. This Project is a partnership between LA Metro and Caltrans.

On Metro’s behalf, SHA Analytics, LLC has set up a risk analysis and reporting framework to be implemented throughout construction. This includes facilitating monthly risk update meetings with the Metro and Caltrans Project Team to update the risk register and reconcile it with construction change orders as they arise. During the construction phase, a change order typically starts as a quantified risk in the risk register, moves into the potential change, becomes a pending change, and then an executed change. Therefore interface and communication between the Project’s risk register and change logs is critical to ensure accurate accounting of risks and contingency. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we estimate the risk-adjusted cost and schedule for the Project every quarter, providing Metro with increased confidence in project budgets and contingency requirements. The risk-adjusted cost results are then compared to the Project’s funding based on the Metro/ Caltrans funding agreement.

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