LACMTA SR-57/ SR-60 Confluence Project
Quantitative Risk Analysis During PS&E & Construction

CLIENT
Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (LACMTA)
LOCATION
Los Angeles, CA
SERVICES
Risk Assessment and Risk Management
Quantitative Risk Analysis
PS&E Phase Risk Assessment
Construction Phase Risk Assessment
FHWA Major Projects Support
FHWA Financial Plans
Proposed project improvements
Source: freetheway.org
SHA Analytics, LLC worked with Metro’s Highway Program to provide risk assessment and quantitative risk analysis services for the SR-57/ SR-60 Confluence Project at Grand Avenue during the PS&E Phase. The project is located at the SR-57/ SR-60 south junction and Diamond Bar Blvd on-ramp in the City of Industry and City of Diamond Bar, in Los Angeles County, CA. The Project aims to improve traffic operations, increase capacity, and reduce weaving to improve safety. The Project is is being constructed in three phases, with the first two complete and the final phase in construction as of 2025.
Initially, SHA Analytics, LLC role on the project was to conduct a quantitative risk analysis for the Project. The Project is part of Metro’s Highway Program and currently in the PS&E phase. It was identified as a candidate for quantitative risk analysis based on the Metro Highway Program Risk Management Framework. Prior to construction SHA Analytics, LLC facilitated a risk assessment workshop with participation from Metro and its technical advisors, and estimated risk-adjusted cost and schedule for the project using Monte Carlo simulation. When FHWA identified the Project as a Major Project, we supported Metro through the federal process—preparing for and participating in the FHWA-led risk workshop and developing the required Initial Financial Plan and Project Management Plan.
During construction, SHA Analytics, LLC continues to support Metro through biannual updates to the Project’s quantitative risk analysis. These updates include Monte Carlo simulations to assess the sufficiency of project budgets and contingency reserves, coordination with the change management team to align the risk register with the change order log, and facilitated risk meetings with Metro staff, consultants, and project partners to review and prioritize emerging risks.
One of the two annual risk analysis updates is timed to inform Metro’s Financial Plan Annual Update (FPAU), a requirement under the FHWA Major Project process. SHA Analytics, LLC leads this effort, ensuring risk-adjusted cost and schedule estimates feed directly into the federal submittal. This integrated process strengthens Metro’s ability to manage evolving risks, maintain compliance, and ensure greater predictability in project delivery.