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I-105 ExpressLanes Project

 Risk Analysis and FHWA Major Project Support

Metro 105 ExpressLanes Project Map

Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (LACMTA) 


Los Angeles, CA


Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis

FHWA Major Project Support


FHWA Initial Financial Plan

I-105 ExpressLanes Project Area

SHA Analytics, LLC is part of the team selected by Metro to provide Program Management Support Services (PMSS) to assist Metro with program and construction management support for Metro ExpressLanes projects currently in project development, including the I-105, I-405, and I-10. This work will include program and project management services, preconstruction activities through construction management services, tolling operations testing, and contract closeout. Specifically, SHA Analytics, LLC will lead the cost and schedule risk assessment and quantitative risk analysis tasks, which follows the highway project risk assessment framework we developed previously with LA Metro.

This approach to quantitative risk analysis builds confidence and credibility in the project estimates to help Metro’s Highway program plan for successful project delivery. Project risk analysis and risk management is an ongoing process that begins with the identification of project risks. The potential impacts of these risks are assessed in terms of their impacts on key project metrics including cost, schedule, and scope. Once risks are identified and quantified, risk response planning begins through the process of identifying and evaluating potential risk mitigation strategies. Central to this process are risk workshops. These workshops include participation from Metro, its advisors, subject matter experts, and stakeholders to leverage the combined experience and knowledge of the workshop participants to identify and quantify risks. The workshop outcomes are recorded in the risk register.

Following the workshop, the risk register is evaluated along with project data and assumptions including the project’s cost and schedule estimates using Monte Carlo simulation. This process involves evaluating thousands of iterations of the quantified risks to estimate the range of potential project costs and duration. The resulting outcomes are risk-adjusted cost and schedule probability distributions. Our process supports Metro by acknowledging and accounting for risks to the project early in the development process, to provide a better understanding of potential project costs and delivery timelines, as well as an understanding of potential opportunities for risk mitigation to contain costs and reduce delays. Additionally, we will support Metro in meeting FHWA Major Projects requirements related to FHWA’s cost and schedule risk assessment process and developing FHWA Financial Plans.

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