SHA Analytics, LLC is providing risk assessment and risk analysis services to Metro on its I-5 North County Enhancements Project. The Project consists of widening I-5 between the SR-14 Interchange and the Parker Road Interchange along with Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) improvements between the I-405 and I-210 interchanges. The Project is in the City of Santa Clarita and the unincorporated area of the Los Angeles County.

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Prior to the start of construction, SHA Analytics, LLC worked with Metro to conduct a pre-bid quantitative risk analysis for the Project and set up a risk analysis and reporting framework to be implemented throughout construction. We facilitated a risk assessment workshop with Metro staff and Metro’s technical advisors to identify and quantify risks to the Project, incorporating information from the FHWA Cost Estimate Review and constructability study to create a comprehensive risk register. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we estimated the risk-adjusted cost and schedule for the Project, providing Metro with increased confidence in project budgets and contingency requirements. We also collaborated with Metro Project Controls to develop the integration of the risk assessment with their Oracle Primavera Unifier system to track Project change orders.

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During the construction phase, SHA Analytics, LLC continues to support Metro by facilitating monthly meetings to update the Project’s risk register and conducting quarterly Monte Carlo simulations to maintain risk-adjusted cost and schedule estimates. Our process ensures close coordination between the risk register and change management logs, recognizing that many change orders originate as quantified risks. This integrated approach improves the accuracy of contingency tracking and enhances Metro’s ability to proactively manage risk.

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In parallel, SHA Analytics, LLC leads the development of Metro’s Financial Plan Annual Updates (FPAUs), a key requirement of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Major Project process. These updates are informed by our ongoing risk analysis and submitted to FHWA for review and approval. This alignment of financial planning and risk management reinforces Metro’s ability to maintain funding eligibility and federal oversight throughout construction.