I-105 ExpressLanes Risk Analysis to Support OPCC Negotiations

SHA Analytics, LLC, as part of the Program Management Support Services team for the I-105 ExpressLanes Project, led the quantitative risk analysis supporting negotiations between LA Metro and its Construction Manager/General Contractor (CMGC) throughout the Opinion of Probable Construction Cost (OPCC) process. The OPCC process serves as a core mechanism for open-book pricing, risk allocation, and budget alignment under CMGC project delivery.

To support these negotiations, SHA Analytics led risk workshops and facilitated discussions among subject matter experts, Metro staff, its consultants, and the Contractor. Risks were evaluated for allocation to the party best positioned to manage them. For example, certain technical construction risks within the Contractor’s control were allocated to the Contractor, while risks outside its control were retained by Metro and incorporated into the project’s contingency.

Throughout the process, SHA Analytics maintained a dynamic risk register reflecting evolving project conditions and routinely updated the quantitative risk analysis to provide Metro with confidence in setting appropriate contingency budgets.

This work helped Metro develop a well-informed understanding of project risk and risk allocation and reach agreement with the Contractor on the Package 1 construction cost. The Metro Board approved the related Package 1 construction contract and budget in October 2024. Construction for this package broke ground in April 2025.

SHA Analytics’ involvement continued through the Packages 2 and 3 OPCC negotiations, culminating in October 2025, when the Metro Board approved the construction contract for Segments 2 and 3 and the associated life-of-project budget.